Best Picture• Brokeback Mountain
• Capote
• Crash
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• Munich
This is turning into a closer race than many expected. It's
Brokeback Mountain vs.
Crash.
Brokeback has the advantage in that it has won practically every precursor award that exists. Yet,
Crash is the kind of liberal feel-good movie the Academy loves to reward. Also, although Hollywood is probably the most pro-gay industry in the nation, there are still many older voters who would much rather vote for a movie about racism than a movie about gay cowboys.
Still,
Brokeback is the favorite. And personally, nothing would make me happier than to see it win over
Crash.Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: Crash
Should Win: Munich
Best Director• George Clooney,
Good Night, and Good Luck• Paul Haggis,
Crash• Ang Lee,
Brokeback Mountain• Bennett Miller,
Capote
• Steven Spielberg,
Munich Ang Lee will win his first Directing Oscar.
Will Win: Ang Lee
Spoiler: George Clooney
Should Win: Steven Spielberg
Best Actor• Philip Seymour Hoffman,
Capote• Terrence Howard,
Hustle & Flow• Heath Ledger,
Brokeback Mountain• Joaquin Phoenix,
Walk the Line• David Strathairn,
Good Night, and Good LuckPhilip Seymour Hoffman, one of the greatest actors working today, has this wrapped up.
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Spoiler: Heath Ledger
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress• Judi Dench,
Mrs. Henderson Presents• Felicity Huffman,
Transamerica• Keira Knightley,
Pride & Prejudice• Charlize Theron,
North Country• Reese Witherspoon,
Walk the LineNow, this may be one of the most interesting categories of the night. All signs point to Witherspoon taking home the Oscar - she's young, pretty, and gave an admirable performance. Yet her character, June Carter, really felt like more of a supporting character than a lead.
Then you have Felicity Huffman. She's an Emmy-winning star on one of the most watched television shows. Her role is meatier than Reese's. Her performance is better. And she did something the Academy always loves - she uglified herself with tons of makeup.
But I don't have the guts to predict an upset. So Reese it is.
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Spoiler: Felicity Huffman
Should Win: Felicity Huffman
Best Supporting Actor• George Clooney,
Syriana• Matt Dillon,
Crash• Paul Giamatti,
Cinderella Man• Jake Gyllenhaal,
Brokeback Mountain• William Hurt,
A History of ViolenceClooney vs. Giamatti. Giamatti has been snubbed the past two years (for
Sideways and
American Splendor), so the Academy may want to give him a "make up" Oscar. Yet, Clooney is a classy guy that everyone in the industry loves. Furthermore, he directed and wrote
Good Night, and Good Luck, scoring a total of 3 nominations. The Academy will want George to go home with an Oscar somehow, and this is where he'll get it.
Will Win: George Clooney
Spoiler: Paul Giamatti
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal
Best Supporting Actress• Amy Adams,
Junebug• Catherine Keener,
Capote• Frances McDormand,
North Country• Rachel Weisz,
The Constant Gardener• Michelle Williams,
Brokeback MountainAnother interesting category. Weisz probably has this won, but watch out for Michelle Williams and Amy Adams. If
Brokeback wins Best Picture, Williams could pull off an upset because the Academy usually likes the Best Picture to take home at least one acting award. Yet, her role may be viewed as too small and passive. Enter Amy Adams, who gave the best supporting performance of the year. Adams steals the show in
Junebug, and Sony Pictures Classics has been campaigning hard for her. But I'm sticking with Weisz, who is pregnant, and that always helps.
Will Win: Rachel Weisz
Spoiler: Amy Adams or Michelle Williams
Should Win: Amy Adams
Best Original ScreenplayWill Win: Crash
Should Win: Match Point
Best Adapted ScreenplayWill Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Capote
Best Animated FeatureWill Win: Wallace & Gromit
Should Win: Howl's Moving Castle
Best Foreign Language FilmWill Win: Tsotsi
Should Win: Tsotsi
Best DocumentaryWill Win: Murderball (my most gutsy pick)
Should Win: Murderball
Best CinematographyWill Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: The New World
Best Art DirectionWill Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: King Kong
Best Costume DesignWill Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Best EditingWill Win: Crash
Should Win: Munich
Best SoundWill Win: Walk the Line
Should Win: War of the Worlds
Best Sound EditingWill Win: King Kong
Should Win: War of the Worlds
Best Visual EffectsWill Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong
Best MakeupWill Win: The Chronicles of Narnia
Should Win: The Chronicles of Narnia
Best Original ScoreWill Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Munich
Best Original SongWill Win: "In the Deep," Crash
Should Win: "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp," Hustle & Flow