Final Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
• Brokeback Mountain
• Capote
• Crash
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• Munich

This is turning into a closer race than many expected. It's Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash. Brokeback has the advantage in that it has won practically every precursor award that exists. Yet, Crash is the kind of liberal feel-good movie the Academy loves to reward. Also, although Hollywood is probably the most pro-gay industry in the nation, there are still many older voters who would much rather vote for a movie about racism than a movie about gay cowboys.

Still, Brokeback is the favorite. And personally, nothing would make me happier than to see it win over Crash.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Spoiler: Crash
Should Win: Munich


Best Director
• George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
• Paul Haggis, Crash
• Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
• Bennett Miller, Capote
• Steven Spielberg, Munich

Ang Lee will win his first Directing Oscar.

Will Win: Ang Lee
Spoiler: George Clooney
Should Win: Steven Spielberg


Best Actor
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
• Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
• Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
• Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
• David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

Philip Seymour Hoffman, one of the greatest actors working today, has this wrapped up.

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Spoiler: Heath Ledger
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman


Best Actress
• Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
• Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
• Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
• Charlize Theron, North Country
• Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Now, this may be one of the most interesting categories of the night. All signs point to Witherspoon taking home the Oscar - she's young, pretty, and gave an admirable performance. Yet her character, June Carter, really felt like more of a supporting character than a lead.

Then you have Felicity Huffman. She's an Emmy-winning star on one of the most watched television shows. Her role is meatier than Reese's. Her performance is better. And she did something the Academy always loves - she uglified herself with tons of makeup.

But I don't have the guts to predict an upset. So Reese it is.

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Spoiler: Felicity Huffman
Should Win: Felicity Huffman


Best Supporting Actor
• George Clooney, Syriana
• Matt Dillon, Crash
• Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
• Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
• William Hurt, A History of Violence

Clooney vs. Giamatti. Giamatti has been snubbed the past two years (for Sideways and American Splendor), so the Academy may want to give him a "make up" Oscar. Yet, Clooney is a classy guy that everyone in the industry loves. Furthermore, he directed and wrote Good Night, and Good Luck, scoring a total of 3 nominations. The Academy will want George to go home with an Oscar somehow, and this is where he'll get it.

Will Win: George Clooney
Spoiler: Paul Giamatti
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal


Best Supporting Actress
• Amy Adams, Junebug
• Catherine Keener, Capote
• Frances McDormand, North Country
• Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
• Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Another interesting category. Weisz probably has this won, but watch out for Michelle Williams and Amy Adams. If Brokeback wins Best Picture, Williams could pull off an upset because the Academy usually likes the Best Picture to take home at least one acting award. Yet, her role may be viewed as too small and passive. Enter Amy Adams, who gave the best supporting performance of the year. Adams steals the show in Junebug, and Sony Pictures Classics has been campaigning hard for her. But I'm sticking with Weisz, who is pregnant, and that always helps.

Will Win: Rachel Weisz
Spoiler: Amy Adams or Michelle Williams
Should Win: Amy Adams


Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Match Point

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Capote

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit
Should Win: Howl's Moving Castle

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Tsotsi
Should Win: Tsotsi

Best Documentary
Will Win: Murderball (my most gutsy pick)
Should Win: Murderball

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: The New World

Best Art Direction
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: King Kong

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Editing
Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Munich

Best Sound
Will Win: Walk the Line
Should Win: War of the Worlds

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: War of the Worlds

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong

Best Makeup
Will Win: The Chronicles of Narnia
Should Win: The Chronicles of Narnia

Best Original Score
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Munich

Best Original Song
Will Win: "In the Deep," Crash
Should Win: "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp," Hustle & Flow